Israel assassinate 18 IRGC members since December!

Israel strikes Iran consulate in Syria’s capital Damascus: 

What we know

Iran has promised a response after an alleged Israeli attack on its consulate killed seven including two top commanders.

Iran has promised a response after its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus was destroyed in a suspected Israeli missile attack, killing seven people including a top commander and his deputy.

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and his deputy General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi were killed in Monday’s attack, the IRGC said in a statement.

Israel has long targeted Iran’s military installations in Syria and those of its proxies but Monday’s attack was the first time it had targeted the embassy compound itself.

Here’s what we know:

What happened?

The consulate, which is next to the main embassy building in Damascus’s Mezzeh district, was struck at about 5pm (14:00 GMT) on Monday.

Photos from the scene showed piles of rubble and twisted steel with an Iranian flag still hanging from a pole nearby.

Who was there?

Several IRGC military advisers were in the building at the time of the attack and seven were killed, according to the IRGC statement.

The statement said Zahedi and Hajriahimi were among the dead.

Zahedi was the leader of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, it said.

The United Kingdom-based war monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said as many as 11 people had been killed, including eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese, all of them fighters.

How has Iran reacted?

Iran’s Ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, who was not injured in the attack, said Tehran’s response would be “decisive”.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian described the attack “as a violation of all international obligations and conventions” and blamed Israel.

In a separate statement, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said that Iran “reserves the right to carry out a reaction and will decide on the type of response and the punishment of the aggressor”.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the strike was a “flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter, international law, and the foundational principle of the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises”.

Saying the strike was “a significant threat to regional peace and security”, the Iranian mission urged the UN Security Council to condemn the attack and said Tehran reserved the right “to take a decisive response”.

Protesters took to the streets of Tehran to condemn Israel over the attack.

How have others reacted?

Syria said “innocents” had been killed in the strike.

“We strongly condemn this atrocious terrorist attack that targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus and killed a number of innocents,” said Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad who visited the scene of the attack along with Syria’s interior minister.

Russia, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, also joined the condemnation.

“We strongly condemn this unacceptable attack against the Iranian consular mission in Syria,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group warned that Israel would pay for the attack.

Hezbollah has exchanged near-daily cross-border fire with Israel in support of its ally Hamas since the Gaza war erupted in October.

“Certainly, this crime will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge,” Hezbollah said in a statement on Tuesday. It added that Zahedi was “one of the first to support, sacrifice, and persevere for many years to develop and advance the work of the resistance [Hezbollah] in Lebanon”.

Muslim countries including Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also condemned the attack.

In the United States, meanwhile, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters that Washington remained “concerned about anything that would be escalatory or cause an increase in conflict in the region”.

When asked about the attack, an Israeli military spokesperson told journalists: “We do not comment on reports in the foreign media.”

The New York Times cited four unnamed Israeli officials as acknowledging that Israel was responsible for the attack.

What could the consequences be?

The attack appeared to signify an escalation of Israel’s targeting of military officials from Iran, which provides money and weapons to hardline groups fighting Israel in Gaza and along its border with Lebanon.

But analysts appear divided over whether the action would bring about a regional war.

Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, said Israel probably saw the strike more as a deterrent.

“The Israelis are convinced that if they seek to hang back, the threat will grow and not diminish,” he said. “They are persuaded that as long as they do something like this periodically, their adversaries will be deterred.”

However, Steven Cook, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, said there was a danger of escalation.

“The IRGC can loosen restraints on proxies in Iraq and Syria, placing American forces in jeopardy again,” he said. “The Iranians could also direct Hezbollah to escalate its attacks on Israel, which have been growing bolder and more numerous.”

The chief spokesman for Israel’s army, Daniel Hagari, said a drone attack on a naval base in southern Israel later on Monday was “directed by Iran” and caused no injuries.

Early on Tuesday, the Israeli military said some kind of weapon fired from Syria towards Israel crashed before reaching its intended target.

Ali Vaez, the director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project, agreed there was a risk of expanded conflict but that it might not be of too much concern to Israel.

“[This] puts Israel in a win-win situation because Israel knows Iran doesn’t want to get dragged into a regional war, so if it escalates its attacks against Iranian assets and personnel in Syria, it probably will be cost-free and if Iran does respond and retaliate, then it becomes a justified pretext for expanding the war.”⍐

Oil Prices Start the Week Lower Despite Iran Attack on Israel

 

Crude oil prices began trade today with a decline following Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel that the latter said had only done limited damage.

https://oilprice.com/ By Irina Slav - Apr 15, 2024

"An attack was largely priced in the days leading up to it. Also, the limited damage and the fact that there was no loss of life means that maybe Israel's response will be more measured," ING’s Warren Patterson said, as quoted by Reuters.

"But clearly, there is still plenty of uncertainty and it all depends on how Israel now responds," the Dutch bank’s head of commodity strategy also said.

Indeed, the degree of geopolitical uncertainty rose

significantly despite the fact that Iran’s retaliation was a non-surprise, as the West seeks a diplomatic way out of a further escalation while both Iran and Israel vow to respond to each other’s next moves reciprocally.

ING’s Patterson and commodity strategist Ewa Manthey said in a note from earlier today that Iran had signaled the drone strike “concluded” the whole affair for it but it was not certain whether Israel saw things the same way.

Naturally, this has heightened risks around oil supply from the Middle East, and especially Iran, which despite sanctions has boosted its output to some 3 million barrels daily and is currently the fourth-largest producer within OPEC.

In this context, according to the Dutch bank, there were two risks inherent to oil supply in the situation. First, the U.S. could tighten the sanction noose because of the strike on Israel and prompt cuts in output. Second, Israel could retaliate by targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, again affecting supply.

Sanctions could take some Iranian output off the market, per ING, but an Israeli attack on infrastructure could cause more significant supply losses. Should this happen, oil prices will have much higher to go, even though the ING analysts pointed to a possible new release of oil from the U.S. SPR and OPEC’s spare capacity.⍐

US ‘doesn’t believe’ that Iran attack ‘needs’ to escalate into wider war.

 

NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” April 14, 2024, By Alexandra Marquez

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Sunday said President Joe Biden doesn’t “believe” that Iran’s overnight attacks against Israel need to escalate into a wider war in the Middle East.

“The President doesn’t believe that it needs to move in that direction whatsoever,” Kirby said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”

His remarks came hours after Iran launched an attack on Israel with more than 300 missiles and drones. The U.S. helped Israel defend against the attack, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement late Saturday, and just a “few” of the ballistic missiles fired from Iran landed inside Israel, an Israeli Defense Forces spokesman said.

Most of the cruise missiles launched by Iran were intercepted by Israeli fighter jets, the spokesperson said. It was the first time Iran had launched a direct military attack against Israel.

Kirby also declined to “get into hypotheticals” about whether the U.S. would back an Israeli counterattack against Iran.

“Israel hasn’t made any decisions that I’m aware of about what the next step is,” Kirby told moderator Kristen Welker.

Asked about whether the Biden administration has a “red line” for getting directly involved in a conflict against Iran, Kirby declined to identify one, saying, “I mean ... we could sit here all day talking about what is and what isn’t a red line. I’m not going to do that.”

House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner, R-Ohio, criticized Kirby’s comments by saying, “There should be a red line.”

He called on the Biden administration to “take seriously that this attack has happened. It’s unprecedented and certainly, it needs to be viewed as an escalation.”

Still, Turner agreed, “I don’t think at this point that the United States should be engaged in a military action directly at Iran.”

Both Turner and Kirby hailed the joint effort between Israel and the U.S. to use missile defense systems to guard against almost all of the incoming Iranian attacks.Kirby said that the effort was, “an incredible military achievement by Israel” and “quite frankly the United States and other partners that helped Israel defend itself against more than 300 drones and missiles. I mean, it’s just an extraordinary example of military superiority.”

Turner added, “The United States and Israel jointly developed missile defense technology that went to work last night and it was proven to be successful.”⍐

IRGC launches ‘extensive’ retaliatory missile, drone strikes on occupied territories

 "Operation True Promise."

Picture shows an Iranian missile or drone flying across Tel Aviv's skies.

IRGC launches ‘extensive’ retaliatory missile, drone strikes on occupied territories

Press TV Saturday, 13 April 2024 

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has launched “extensive” retaliatory missile and drone strikes against the occupied territories in response to the Israeli regime’s terrorist attack of April 1 against the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic premises in the Syrian capital Damascus.

The Corps announced launching the strikes in a statement on Saturday night, defining the mission as "Operation True Promise."

“In response to the Zionist regime’s numerous crimes, including the attack on the consular section of Iran’s Embassy in Damascus and the martyrdom of a number of our country’s commanders and military advisors in Syria, the IRGC’s Aerospace Division launched tens of missiles and drones against certain targets inside the occupied territories,” the statement read.

Iran's Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, meanwhile, warned that “Whatever country that could open its soil or airspace to Israel for a [potential] attack on Iran, will receive our decisive response.”

The Israeli attack had resulted in the martyrdom of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and five of their accompanying officers.

The terrorist attack drew sharp condemnation from senior Iranian political and military leaders, who vowed "definitive revenge."

During a speech in Tehran on Wednesday after leading the Eid al-Fitr prayers, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said the Israeli regime “must be punished and will be punished” for the deadly strike on the Iranian diplomatic premises.

The Leader added, “The evil Zionist regime committed another mistake ...  and that was the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. The consulate and diplomatic missions in any country are considered to be the territory of that country. When they attack our consulate, it means they have attacked our soil."

(This item will be updated-Press TV).

Read More:

US ‘doesn’t believe’ that Iran attack ‘needs’ to escalate into wider war

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Indian Ocean islands evolving into thresholds of power for influential countries

 

CT By Sulochana ramiah mohan -April 11, 2024

The Indian Ocean is home to numerous islands, both inhabited and uninhabited, which have recently garnered attention due to their geopolitical significance amid escalating power dynamics involving nations like India, China and their allies.

The Indian Ocean has historically been a vital trade route, with islands acting as strategic points for control and influence. These islands provided access to resources and wealth for those who controlled them, justifying the effort to overcome vast distances.

The US and its Quad partners have shifted their focus to the Indian Ocean region, due to the pivotal role in connecting to the broader Indo-Pacific region where China asserts that its nine-dash line, covering nearly 90 per cent of the three million square kilometres in the South China Sea, constitutes as its sovereign territory. It claims indisputable sovereignty over this area that is triggering tension in the 21st century. Consequently, islands such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives and those under French and British colonisation have heightened their vigilance in safeguarding their interests, particularly amidst China’s expanding presence in the region. 

China justifies its presence in the South China Sea, that is creating a major stir, but it has cited the necessity of its presence there as well as in the Indian ocean, as its cargo vessels are traversing the east-west route passing by countries like Sri Lanka.

The Maldives, acknowledging its strategic positioning, similar to Sri Lanka, has initiated assertive measures to capitalise on its location, aiming to attract demand-driven infrastructure projects rather than relying solely on external aid. This internal shift has also sparked geopolitical tensions.

Sri Lanka has emerged as a critical geopolitical focal point over the past two decades, primarily due to its tilt towards China over other global powers, while China justifies its presence by emphasising the heavy reliance on trade routes passing through the Indian Ocean. 

Security concerns, including the rise of piracy and the potential for military conflicts, further complicate the situation in the Indian ocean region where India has secured rights to nab pirates even at mid-sea and try them in Indian Courts.

The Indian Ocean holds significant economic potential in terms of resources, tourism, and trade. Balancing economic development with environmental protection is crucial for island nations. The future of the Indian Ocean hinges on effectively managing these competing interests. Cooperation and peaceful resolution of disputes are imperative for maintaining regional stability and fostering prosperity.

Muizzu’s growing relations with China raise eyebrows

The Maldives archipelago has recently attracted attention, especially with President Mohammed Muizzu’s vocal stance against India. While his strategic manoeuvring may have bolstered his electoral success, the broader implications of his actions have led India to adopt a silent stance. Muizzu’s indirect call for India to leave the Maldives extends to US allies, including France and EU nations, yet this doesn’t seem to concern him.

Realistically, such a scenario is improbable given the Maldives’ heavy reliance on countries like India, its immediate neighbour. The country’s dependence on India is shown by the fact that a disruption in onion imports from India could potentially lead to unrest. President Muizzu’s rhetoric of “India Out” becomes further complicated by the substantial debt owed to India, amounting to approximately USD 1.5 billionm obtained through Indian credit lines.

Despite the apparent confrontation, Muizzu’s ultimatum demanding the immediate withdrawal of Indian military presence from the Maldives resulted in a diplomatic debacle. However, India, understanding the Maldives’ reliance on its assistance, swiftly responded to subsequent requests for aid. Muizzu recently urged India to consider implementing debt relief measures for the Maldives in light of the substantial loans accumulated over successive governments. India has moved its base to Lakshadweep, another island that is strategically important.

The presence of approximately 89 Indian troops, which had been deployed to support the Maldivian Government during various crises, became a focal point and Muizzu wanted them out. Indian security personnel were deployed in the Maldives to patrol its vast maritime borders. It assisted during water shortage as well as during the tsunami and as well as during the coup. India’s dissatisfaction with the regime change is compounded by its recent efforts to assist Sri Lanka in extricating itself from China’s influence, including substantial financial aid during its economic downturn.

The trilateral maritime security agreement between India, Maldives and Sri Lanka, crucial for ensuring the safety of sea routes to the Malacca Straits, faces jeopardy amidst these developments. Sri Lanka and the Maldives share close relations and are intertwined geopolitically. While Beijing refrained from direct involvement in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, its separate efforts to resolve Sri Lanka’s debts lack transparency. 

Nevertheless, while India has assumed a leading role in aiding Sri Lanka, the US has heightened its presence in Colombo, primarily in response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Notably, the US has financed Adani to develop the western container terminal of the port of Colombo, aiming to maintain its influence on the maritime front lately.

In the Maldives affair, after negotiations with New Delhi, 89 Indian soldiers and their support staff from the nation, comprising 1,192 tiny coral islands, withdrew.

During his visit to Beijing in January 2024, Muizzu finalised a series of agreements with China covering infrastructure, energy, marine and agricultural sectors. Additionally, he requested India to remove two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft, essential for marine surveillance, search and rescue missions and medical evacuations, which are currently operated by Indian troops.

New reclaimed islands for Male

However, one of the most notable aspects of Muizzu’s agreements lies in the creation of new islands. Muizzu has authorised the reclamation of land for airport development on three islands in the Maldives. Intriguingly, Sri Lanka’s Capital Marine and Civil Construction Company (CMCCC) has been tasked with this endeavour.

The project agreement was formalised between the Planning Ministry’s Director-General, Fathimath Shana Farooq, and CMCCC’s Managing Director, Sevaraja Manivannan, who hails from Sri Lanka but resides in the UK. Under the USD 42.4 million project, CMCCC is mandated to reclaim land in B. Thulhaadhoo, Th. Vilufushi, and Sh. Bilehfahi. Specifically, the company is assigned to reclaim 44.70 hectares in Thulhaadhoo, while both Vilufushi and Bilehfahi will require the reclamation of 56.34 hectares each.

During Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s administration, the projects to build airports in Thulhaadhoo and Vilufushi were initially conceived. However, it was under President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s administration that these projects gained momentum. Additionally, the Malé administration launched the ambitious Ras Malé project on December 18. Under this initiative, Fushi Dhiggaru Falhu will be transformed into a modern mega city.

CMCCC will undertake dredging activities encompassing a total of 1150 hectares of land. In return, they will be granted a long-term lease of 70 hectares of land from Hulhumale Phase II and Rasmale’, with 10 hectares from Hulhumale and 60 from Rasmale’. Importantly, this project will be executed without reliance on the State budget, marking a significant leap towards self-sufficiency in infrastructure development.

Underwater tunnel in the Maldives 

One significant announcement made during the current administration is the plan to connect Malé and Ras Malé via an underwater tunnel. This project would comprise a railway system allowing tourists to marvel at the underwater beauty, thereby enhancing the tourism industry. The feasibility studies for the tunnel project have already commenced and the administration is actively seeking potential developers with the necessary technical expertise.

Surveillance drones from Turkey for the Maldives

In a recent development, Muizzu has acquired surveillance drones from Turkey. Although the exact number is undisclosed, it is reported that he ordered TB2 drones during his inaugural foreign trip to Turkey, breaking the tradition of visiting India first. These drones would be stationed on the island called Mafaru. It is speculated that the Maldives seeks to monitor its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which spans nearly one million square kilometres. Traditionally, India and Malé jointly conducted surveillance in the region. However, Muizzu’s Government has diversified its defence strategy by signing a weapons deal with Turkey to safeguard the Maldives’ land, sea and air territories. Furthermore, military agreements were inked with China during his visit, leading to the entry of a Chinese surveillance ship, the Xiang Yang Hong 3, into Maldivian waters. While India protested similar Chinese vessels in Sri Lanka, Muizzu’s administration welcomed Hong 3 unhindered.

In his efforts to diversify the Maldives’ foreign relations and reduce dependence on a single country, Muizzu seeks to procure commodities from China, unlike the past reliance on India alone. China has assured the Maldives of three military aids free of cost, weapons transfers, and enhanced ties with Malé. Additionally, Chinese delegations have visited not only the Maldives but also Sri Lanka and Nepal, signifying a broader diplomatic outreach by Beijing in the region.

India, Sri Lanka, and Kachchatheevu

This ongoing political issue revolves around the Tamil Nadu Government’s persistent demand for the retrieval of the Kachchatheevu island. While this demand has long been emphasised by the Tamil Nadu Government, due to clashes between Tamil Nadu fishermen and their Sri Lankan counterparts, the dispute has escalated recently. The Tamil Nadu Government claims ownership of the island, leading to continuous tensions in TN.

However, the dispute took a new turn when the Indian Prime Minister intervened, highlighting the historical context of the island’s transfer and pointing fingers at the Congress party for initially ceding control to Sri Lanka. While the primary concern revolves around the fishermen’s issues, India views the island’s strategic location with apprehension, fearing that Sri Lanka might exploit its territorial waters for oil and gas exploration and the former Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla also accused Congress of giving away the island of strategic importance.   

France worried about its territorial islands in the Indian Ocean region

Amidst escalating regional tensions and subtle power struggles with China solidifying its influence in the Indian Ocean and Indo Pacific regions, France has heightened its vigilance over its territories in the area. Notably, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean jointly cover 90% of France’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  

Mayotte is an island under French sovereignty. It is claimed by the Comoros since 1975. Long-standing tensions between the two recently escalated over a Police operation aimed at expelling citizens of the Comoros residing illegally in Mayotte. This has precipitated a geopolitical crisis in Mayotte with significant implications for the French Indo-Pacific strategy.

Since 2018, France’s President Emmanuel Macron has formalised a French Indo-Pacific strategy to enhance French assets in the region. The exercise of sovereignty in the overseas collective of the Indo-Pacific (Reunion Island, Mayotte, The French Southern and Antarctic Lands, Wallis-et-Futuna, New Caledonia and French Polynesia) is a major component of the new narrative implemented by the French State.

Mayotte, located 300 km northwest of Madagascar, is a key element of this new narrative as it is strategically located in the Indian Ocean, a major sea route of the globalised economy conveying 30 per cent of global trade and 40 per cent of France’s exports outside the EU. Furthermore, several scientific studies have identified large natural gas reserves around the island. The exclusive economic zone of Mayotte therefore attracts the interest of foreign powers. China, for example, has already carried out seismic studies in this area, while Russia supports the claims of the Comoros over Mayotte.

Considering France’s extensive overseas territories like La Réunion island and its sizable EEZ, it’s evident that French foreign policy towards these island States holds paramount importance in balancing major powers in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In the forthcoming years, France and the five Indian Ocean islands are poised to strengthen their diplomatic relationship, enhancing collaboration and exchanging mutual diplomatic interests. Seychelles, comprising a group of 115 islands in the Western Indian Ocean, established diplomatic ties with France in 1976, fostering excellent bilateral relations.

As Sri Lanka emerges as a pivotal player in the strategic dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region, several nations are striving to consolidate their presence in the area. Despite France’s significant presence in the Indian Ocean, it formally joined the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) framework only three years ago. With the expansion of Chinese influence on one side and escalating rivalry between China and the US on the other, Sri Lanka’s geopolitical significance has become paramount.

Against this backdrop, Marc Abensour, the French Ambassador for the Indo-Pacific, recently visited Colombo and engaged with a select group of media representatives, reaffirming France’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. He underscored the strategic importance of Sri Lanka within this framework, which aligns with regional Indian Ocean interests.

According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, France has maintained a longstanding presence in the Indian Ocean dating back to the 17th century. Notably, Mayotte, situated between Madagascar and Mozambique, remains a French overseas department alongside La Réunion. Among the established actors in the region, France possesses the most extensive diplomatic network, with missions and embassies in Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka.

Furthermore, the French Armed Forces maintain military bases in Réunion and Mayotte to safeguard French territories and provide regional humanitarian aid. 

Dr. Paco MILHIET says the ‘ranco-Indian roadmap for the Indo-Pacific’, signed in 2023, outlines 12 points as pillars of collaboration in the broader region. The roadmap encompasses issues such as seabed exploration, space cooperation, maritime collaboration, solar alliance, the Franco-Indian campus and the Pacific Ocean region. New avenues of cooperation have emerged, including those related to the Indo-Pacific, strategic technologies like artificial intelligence, and climate change.

The French territory La Réunion is gradually evolving into a strategic platform for Franco-Indian military collaboration in the region. The two countries signed a logistics cooperation agreement in 2018 for Indian Naval Forces to access the Réunion base. Joint patrols involving an Indian P8I aircraft are regularly conducted. With a range of 2200 km, this aircraft can monitor the entire eastern coast of Africa from Réunion.

Mauritius and the Chagos Archipelago

Mauritius asserts its sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago, which presently stands as a British Overseas Territory housing a US military base. This ongoing dispute underscores the competition for strategic positions and potential resource wealth in the region. Viewed as a vestige of colonialism, the issue also prompts inquiries into regional power dynamics. The presence of the US military base on Diego Garcia raises strategic concerns for several countries in the vicinity, with broader implications for territorial disputes across the Indian Ocean.

Mauritius persists in its pursuit of sovereignty, garnering both regional and international support. The responses of Britain and the US will play a pivotal role in shaping the resolution of this dispute. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron emphasised the significance of Diego Garcia in the broader context of national security, emphasising the importance of maintaining security, safety, and usability of the base during negotiations with Mauritius. He further stated that the resettlement of Chagossians, including on Diego Garcia, was deemed “not possible” due to security concerns.

Islands of Indian Ocean needed for big powers

Islands may hold valuable resources or strategic locations, leading to competition between nations and Countries might use these islands for military bases, potentially raising tensions in the region. Control of islands can influence trade routes and regional power dynamics.

The Indian Ocean is a rich fishing ground, and islands can control access to exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with abundant fish stocks. This can lead to disputes over illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing by other nations.

Some islands may hold valuable mineral deposits like oil, gas, cobalt or rare earth elements. This can attract interest from countries seeking to secure their own supply or limit access to rivals. Also, freshwater scarcity is a growing concern globally and some islands may possess limited freshwater resources that become strategically important. Islands can be ideal locations for military bases due to their central position in shipping lanes or proximity to crucial choke points. This allows for control of maritime traffic and projection of military power

Islands often function as crucial communication hubs due to their strategic positioning along undersea cables or their suitability for satellite relay stations. This grants control over information flow and communication infrastructure, holding significant geopolitical importance. Moreover, certain islands feature pristine beaches and unique ecosystems, attracting tourists and generating substantial revenue. Consequently, there arises competition for control over tourism infrastructure and the potential exploitation of natural resources for tourism development.

Sri Lanka stands out as one such island grappling with these challenges. For Sri Lanka, navigating geopolitical challenges remains pivotal, especially considering the emerging global power dynamics along with India. As major players vie for dominance in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka must carefully consider its actions to maintain its strategic position and safeguard its interests as well as partner countries’ interests.

(aimesulo@gmail.com)⍐

Full text of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's speech to U.S. Congress

Full text of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's speech to U.S. Congress

Leader stresses that Japan has stepped up as a global partner

The following is the full text of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's speech at the U.S. Congress on Thursday.

1. Introduction

Mr. Speaker, Madam Vice President, Honorable Members of the United States Congress, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you, I never get such nice applause from the Japanese Diet.

And let me introduce my wife, Yuko, who is in the gallery. The fact that I married Yuko should give you great confidence in all my decisions.

I am truly honored to speak here in this citadel of democracy and before you, the representatives of the American people.

Nine years ago, the late Prime Minister Abe, who was a close friend of mine, stood in this very spot and gave an address titled "Toward an Alliance of Hope." I was Foreign Minister in his Cabinet at that time, and I was deeply struck to witness the bond between our two countries.

Since childhood, I have felt a connection to the United States, perhaps because I spent my first three years of elementary school at PS 20 and PS 13 in Queens, New York. Even though I was the only Japanese student there, my classmates kindly accepted me and helped me immerse myself in a new culture.

We arrived in the fall of 1963, and for several years my family lived like Americans. My father would take the subway to Manhattan where he worked as a trade official. We rooted for the Mets and the Yankees, and ate hot dogs at Coney Island. On vacation, we would go to Niagara Falls or here to Washington, D.C.

And I remember things that were strange and funny to a little Japanese boy, like watching the Flintstones. I still miss that show. Although I could never translate "yabba dabba doo."

After 60 years, I have a message for the good people of Queens. Thank you for making my family and me feel so welcome. I have never forgotten it.

So, I speak to you today as a long and close friend of the United States. I know that the National Park Service is undertaking a rehabilitation project in the Tidal Basin.

As a gesture of friendship, Japan will provide 250 cherry trees that will be planted there, in anticipation of the 250th anniversary of your independence.

2. The leadership of the United States

As you might also remember, the 1964 World's Fair was held in Queens. Its symbol was a giant Unisphere, and the fair's theme was "Peace Through Understanding." And yet we also know that peace requires more than understanding. It requires resolve.

The U.S. shaped the international order in the postwar world through economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power. It championed freedom and democracy. It encouraged the stability and prosperity of nations, including Japan. And, when necessary, it made noble sacrifices to fulfill its commitment to a better world.

The United States policy was based on the premise that humanity does not want to live oppressed by an authoritarian state, where you are tracked and surveilled and denied from expressing what is in your heart and on your mind.

You believed that freedom is the oxygen of humanity. The world needs the United States to continue playing this pivotal role in the affairs of nations. And yet, as we meet here today, I detect an undercurrent of self-doubt among some Americans about what your role in the world should be.

3. New Challenges

This self-doubt is arising at a time when our world is at history's turning point. The post-Cold War era is already behind us, and we are now at an inflection point that will define the next stage of human history.

The international order that the U.S. worked for generations to build is facing new challenges, challenges from those with values and principles very different from ours.

Freedom and democracy are currently under threat around the globe. Climate change has caused natural disasters, poverty, and displacement on a global scale. In the COVID-19 pandemic, all humanity suffered.

Rapid advances in AI technology have resulted in a battle over the soul of AI that is raging between its promise and its perils. The balance of economic power is shifting. The Global South plays a greater role in responding to challenges and opportunities and calls for a larger voice.

Turning to Japan's own neighborhood, China's current external stance and military actions present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge, not only to the peace and security of Japan but to the peace and stability of the international community at large.

While such a challenge from China continues, our commitment to upholding a free and open international order based on the rule of law, as well as peace, will continue to be the defining agenda going forward.

As a Hiroshima native, I have devoted my political career to bringing about a world without nuclear weapons. For years, I have worked to revitalize the Non-Proliferation Treaty regime so that we can gain momentum in pursuit of the aspiration. But there exists an imminent danger of nuclear weapons proliferation in East Asia. North Korea's nuclear and missile program is a direct threat. The issue of abductions by North Korea remains a critical issue.

North Korea's provocations have impact beyond the region. It has also exported its ballistic missiles to support Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, greatly increasing the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Russia's unprovoked, unjust, and brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has entered its third year. As I often say, Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow. 

Furthermore, Russia continues to threaten the use of nuclear weapons, which has contributed to worldwide concern that yet another catastrophe by nuclear weapon use is a real possibility. In this reality, close coordination between Japan and the U.S. is required more than ever to ensure that the deterrence our Alliance provides remains credible and resilient.

New forms of oppression are being imposed on the world. Freedom is being suppressed through digital technologies. Social media is censored, monitored, and controlled.

There are growing cases of economic coercion and the so-called "debt trap" diplomacy, whereby the economic dependency of nations is exploited and weaponized.

Facing such rapidly changing pressures, how do we continue to safeguard our common values?

4. Global Partners

I want to address those Americans who feel the loneliness and exhaustion of being the country that has upheld the international order almost singlehandedly.

I understand it is a heavy burden to carry such hopes on your shoulders.

Although the world looks to your leadership, the U.S. should not be expected to do it all, unaided and on your own.

Yes, the leadership of the United States is indispensable.

Without U.S. support, how long before the hopes of Ukraine would collapse under the onslaught from Moscow?

Without the presence of the United States, how long before the Indo-Pacific would face even harsher realities?

Ladies and gentlemen, as the United States' closest friend, tomodachi, the people of Japan are with you, side by side, to assure the survival of liberty. Not just for our people, but for all people.

I am not saying this out of my strong attachment to America. I am an idealist but a realist, too. The defense of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law is the national interest of Japan.

The Japanese people are fully committed to these values. I do not want to leave our children a society where human rights are suppressed, where political self-determination is denied, where our lives are monitored by digital technology. I know you don't either.

Upholding these values is both a cause and a benefit for our two countries as well as for the generations to come across the world.

Right now, Japanese and U.S. service members are working side by side to deter aggression and ensure peace.

I admire them, I thank them, and I know I speak for all of us when I say -- they have the gratitude of both our nations.

On the spaceship called "Freedom and Democracy," Japan is proud to be your shipmate. We are on deck, we are on task. And we are ready to do what is necessary.

The democratic nations of the world must have all hands on deck. I am here to say that Japan is already standing shoulder to shoulder with the United States.

You are not alone. We are with you.

Japan has changed over the years. We have transformed ourselves from a reticent ally, recovering from the devastation of World War II, to a strong, committed ally, looking outward to the world.

Japan has transformed its national security strategy. Uncertainty about the future stability of the Indo-Pacific region caused us to change our policies and our very mindset. I myself have stood at the forefront in making our bilateral alliance even stronger.

In 2022, we announced that we would secure a substantial increase of our defense budget by FY 2027 to 2% of GDP, possess counterstrike capabilities, and improve cybersecurity. Today, the deterrence that our Alliance provides is stronger than ever, bolstered by U.S. extended deterrence for Japan.

Japan has taken strong sanctions against Russia in the wake of its aggression against Ukraine. We have announced over $12 billion in aid to Ukraine, including anti-drone detection systems. This is part of NATO's aid package, and yes, we are even working with NATO on the other side of the world from us.

I might add that in February, to help a devastated Ukraine get through these agonizing times, I hosted the conference for Ukraine's economic growth and reconstruction. Japan will continue to stand with Ukraine.

As the geopolitical landscape changed and as Japan grew in confidence, we expanded our outlook beyond that of being America's closest ally. We first became a regional partner of the United States, and now we have become your global partner. Never has our relationship been so close, our vision and approach so united.

Today, our partnership goes beyond the bilateral. Examples include trilateral and quadrilateral cooperation among the U.S., Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, India, and the Philippines as well as cooperation through the G7 and with ASEAN. The three leaders of the U.S., the Republic of Korea and Japan convened at Camp David last summer to inaugurate a new era of our partnership.

From these various endeavors emerges a multilayered regional framework where our Alliance serves as a force multiplier. And, together with these like-minded countries, we are working to realize a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

Here in this chamber, we should have strong bipartisan support for these efforts.

Japan believes in U.S. leadership, and we also believe in the U.S. economy. Japan is the number one foreign direct investor in the United States. Japanese companies have invested around $800 billion, creating almost one million American jobs. These are good jobs with half a million jobs in the manufacturing sector alone.

At home, I am embarking on a set of initiatives called a New Form of Capitalism to drive the Japanese economy. The public and private sectors are joining hands to transform the social challenges we face into engines of growth. Wage increases, capital investment, stock prices -- all have attained levels not seen for thirty years. The Japanese economy is now making strides by capitalizing on these unprecedented and major changes. A growth-oriented Japanese economy should also spur even greater investment in the United States.

And we can then help boost the global economy to steer it toward a strong growth trajectory in the years to come. Just yesterday, President Biden and I demonstrated our commitment to leading the world on the development of the next generation of emerging technologies, such as AI, quantum, semiconductors, biotechnology, and clean energy.

And the scope of our bilateral cooperation expands to space as well, illuminating our path toward a brighter and more hopeful tomorrow. The TV broadcast of Apollo 11's lunar landing in 1969 is still seared into my memory. Japan's lunar lander mission in January achieved the first pinpoint landing in history. 

Yesterday, President Biden and I announced that a Japanese national will be the first non-American astronaut to land on the Moon on a future Artemis mission.

We have two astronauts with us today. Would Mr. Hoshide and Mr. Tani please stand?

Mr. Akihiko Hoshide has flown to space three times and served as commander of the International Space Station for five months in 2021.

Next to him, is Mr. Daniel Tani. He is a retired Japanese American astronaut who has conducted six spacewalks and in his two missions logged over 50 million miles.

Which is a lot of frequent-flyer points. Mr. Hoshide and Mr. Tani are living symbols of our collaboration in space, and we will have many more such collaborations in the future. Thank you, gentlemen. 

5. Conclusion

Let me close with this final thought. I want you to know how seriously Japan takes its role as the United States' closest ally.

Together we carry a large responsibility. I believe that we are essential to peace, vital to freedom, and fundamental to prosperity.

Bonded by our beliefs, I pledge to you Japan's firm alliance and enduring friendship.

"Global Partners for the Future." -- We are your global partner today, and we will be your global partner in the years ahead.

Thank you for inviting me, thank you for your hospitality, and thank you for the role you play in the world.⍐

United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Executive Secretary
Simon Stiell

U.N. climate chief says two years to save the planet

By Kate Abnett and Simon Jessop

Reuters April 10, 2024

LONDON/BRUSSELS, April 10 (Reuters) - Governments, business leaders and development banks have two years to take action to avert far worse climate change, the U.N.'s climate chief said on Wednesday, in a speech that warned global warming is slipping down politicians' agendas.

Scientists say halving climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is crucial to stop a rise in temperatures of more than 1.5 Celsius that would unleash more extreme weather and heat.

Yet last year, the world's energy-related CO2 emissions increased to a record high. Current commitments to fight climate change would barely cut global emissions at all by 2030.

Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change said the next two years are "essential in saving our planet".

ENB Poster

"We still have a chance to make greenhouse gas emissions tumble, with a new generation of national climate plans. But we need these stronger plans, now," he said.

Speaking at an event at the Chatham House think-tank in London, Stiell said the Group of 20 leading economic powers - together, responsible for 80% of global emissions - urgently needed to step up.

The main task for this year's U.N. climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, is for countries to agree a new target for climate finance to support developing countries struggling to invest in shifting away from fossil fuels and fighting climate change.

U.N. climate summits have swelled in size in recent years, with thousands of lobbyists and business representatives attending alongside the government delegations directly involved in the negotiations.

Nearly 84,000 people attended last year's COP28 summit in Dubai, drawing criticism from campaigners after more than 2,000 fossil fuel lobbyists registered to attend.

Stiell said he would like to see future COP meetings reduced in size, while prioritising strong negotiation outcomes. He said he was in talks with Azerbaijan and Brazil - host of the next two U.N. climate summits - about this.

He called for more climate finance to be raised through debt relief, cheaper financing for poorer countries, new sources of international finance such as a tax on shipping emissions, and reforms at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

"Every day finance ministers, CEOs, investors, and climate bankers and development bankers, direct trillions of dollars. It's time to shift those dollars," Stiell said.

In a bumper year for elections around the world - with voters going to the polls from India, to South Africa and the United States - Stiell warned too often climate action was "slipping down cabinet agendas".

Politicians from Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in the United States, to far-right parties seeking gains in the EU's upcoming election, have pushed back on climate policies as they court voters.⍐

 

Protesters take part in a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Berlin in early April, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas [File: Lisi Niesner/Reuters]

ICJ to hear Nicaragua case against Germany for ‘facilitating Gaza genocide’

International Court of Justice urged to stop Berlin from providing Israel with weapons and other aid in its deadly military operation in Gaza.

AJ 8 Apr 2024

Germany is facing charges at the top United Nations court for allegedly “facilitating the commission of genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza in coordination with its military and political ally, Israel.

Nicaragua will set out its case on Monday, with Germany due to respond the following day.

Nicaragua has hauled Germany before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), demanding judges impose emergency measures to stop Berlin from providing Israel with weapons and other assistance.

Germany has hit back at the allegations, with Sebastian Fischer, spokesman for the German Federal Foreign Office, telling reporters in advance of the hearings: “We reject the allegations from Nicaragua.”

“Germany has violated neither the Genocide Convention nor international humanitarian law, and we will demonstrate this in full before the International Court of Justice,” added Fischer.

In a 43-page submission to the court, Nicaragua argues that Germany is in breach of the 1948 UN Genocide Convention, set up in the wake of the Holocaust.

“By sending military equipment and now defunding UNRWA [UN agency for Palestinian refugees] … Germany is facilitating the commission of genocide,” says the submission.

‘Imperative and urgent’

“Germany’s failure is all the more reprehensible with respect to Israel given that Germany has a self-proclaimed privileged relationship with it, which would enable it to usefully influence its conduct,” added Nicaragua.

Nicaragua asked the ICJ to decide “provisional measures” – emergency orders imposed while the court considers the broader case.

It is “imperative and urgent” the court orders such measures given that the lives of “hundreds of thousands of people” are at stake, runs the Nicaraguan case.

The ICJ was set up to rule in disputes between nations and has become a key player in the war between Israel and Hamas that erupted after the October 7 attacks.

In a separate case, South Africa has accused Israel of perpetrating genocide in the Gaza Strip, charges Israel vehemently denies.

In that case, the court ordered Israel to do everything in its power to prevent genocidal acts and recently toughened its stance, ordering additional measures obliging Israel to step up access to humanitarian aid.

The court’s rulings are binding but it lacks an enforcement mechanism – for example, it has ordered Russia to stop its invasion of Ukraine, to no avail.

Nicaragua has requested five provisional measures, including that Germany “immediately suspend its aid to Israel, in particular its military assistance, including military equipment”.

It also calls on the court to order Germany to “reverse its decision to suspend the funding of UNRWA.”

Germany said in January it was halting funding pending an inquiry into Israeli accusations that several UNRWA staff members took part in the October 7 assault.

Nicaragua said in its submission that “it could be comprehensible” that Germany would support an “appropriate reaction” by ally Israel to the October Hamas attacks.

The bloodiest-ever Gaza war began with Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel that resulted in the deaths of 1,139 Israelis and foreigners, most of them civilians.

Israel has killed at least 33,175 people since then, including more than 13,800 children, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health.